The Future is Uncertain
The market confirmed it - shyly.
Two weeks ago, I mapped a convergence: December 18-23 would bring the Chikou Span to meet the Kijun Sen, Mars geometric cycles completing their 260-day square, and the Winter Solstice marking Gann’s 270° cardinal point. Multiple timing systems pointing to the same window.
The market responded with... nothing.
I skipped last week’s report because there was nothing to report. Price oscillated between 86k and 90k, the Kijun acting as both ceiling and floor depending on the day. Volume broke down to 30-40% of moving averages. The 88-94k prison I identified in early December simply tightened its walls.
This is what waiting looks like, just candles going sideways while the mathematics mature.
What I Called Correctly
On December 16, with price at 87,574 on the 45-minute chart, I noted: “Chikou entering cloud in 15 hours... cloud is VERY thin... Chikou CROSSED the Kijun... invalidation below Tenkan 86.6k.”
Price held above 86.6k, the thin cloud offered no resistance. By December 21 - the Solstice - the daily Chikou finally broke above both price and Kijun at 88.3k. The first structural validation since a while.
The Gann fans - one descending from the 10/6 high, one ascending from the 11/17 low - crossed on December 19, at 87,2k marking the geometric center of the consolidation triangle. Price sits at this intersection, waiting for direction. The timing framework identified the window. The market confirmed it - shyly.
Current Structure (December 21 - Solstice)
Daily: Chikou crossed price and Kijun at 88.3k. Price approaching cloud bottom (SSA 88,376). Volume at 32% of MA - green but weak.
4H: Price inside cloud with Kijun as support. Chikou above Tenkan and Kijun but below cloud. Volume at 16% - no conviction.
2H: Price above cloud. Volume at 111% - first meaningful commitment.
Weekly: 5th week inside cloud. Volume at 127% - green doji forming; if price fails to reclaim 98.4k and exits cloud below 80-86k in the next 28 days, the bear market becomes a possibility on the weekly.
The lower timeframes are leading with volume; the higher timeframes are transitioning without commitment, This is how breakouts build - or how they fail.
What Comes Next (December 22-28)
The Mars geocentric 120° trine completes on December 23 - a harmonic support aspect. The new 260-day Mars square cycle has just begun, bringing fresh energy into the system. Venus approaches 90° in 22 days, the next geometric marker on my radar.
Bullish scenario: Lower timeframe volume (45m, 2H) percolates upward; daily and 4H volume exceeds 100% of MA, price breaks above Kijun at 89.2k, enters cloud, targets SSB at 95.8k.
Bearish scenario: Volume fails to materialize; price rejected at cloud bottom 88.3k, breakdown below 86.6k Tenkan invalidates the structure. Next support at 80.5k (cycle low). Weekly cloud exit below 80-86k confirms the bear market.
Most likely: Continued consolidation between 86-92k until volume commits, the Chikou cross is necessary but not sufficient; the market hasn’t chosen the direction yet although it has slightly pivoted.
Conclusion
The Chikou-Kijun cross I anticipated arrived on schedule as the geometric confluence marked the moment, alas volume: the validator of all structure, remains absent where it matters most.
The mathematics can show where balance should shift, the geometry can show when cycles converge; only volume reveals whether the market agrees.
let’s wait to see if conviction follows.
Only numbers & equilibrium.
Next update after the Mars geocentric 120° trine completes on December 23.