Superb work connecting physical scarcity to financial engineering. The Shanghai-COMEX divergence you mapped is the kind of thing that shows up in price before it shows up in headlines. When physical premiums persist while backwardation deepens, markets are telling us the paper layer is losing credibility. The 4-year copper conversion timeline is key, most people dunno industrial physics moves slower than finacial narratives. I've traded commodities where inelastic demand gets mispriced until it doesn't, then everything reprices violently.
Thanks for reading. I’m still a student piecing together insights from articles like Campbell’s and my own intuitive inquiry.
Your comment helped me crystallize something: the price divergence I’m seeing reflects the tension between two speeds. The derivatives market moves on financial narratives versus physical scarcity moving on industrial physics. The paper layer can ignore physical reality for a while, but eventually the gap forces repricing.
And now I truly understand inelasticity, not just the definition, but why it matters. When demand is structural (solar must have silver), price suppression through paper contracts only works until it doesn’t.
Appreciate you taking the time to validate what I was sensing but couldn’t yet articulate clearly.
Superb work connecting physical scarcity to financial engineering. The Shanghai-COMEX divergence you mapped is the kind of thing that shows up in price before it shows up in headlines. When physical premiums persist while backwardation deepens, markets are telling us the paper layer is losing credibility. The 4-year copper conversion timeline is key, most people dunno industrial physics moves slower than finacial narratives. I've traded commodities where inelastic demand gets mispriced until it doesn't, then everything reprices violently.
Thanks for reading. I’m still a student piecing together insights from articles like Campbell’s and my own intuitive inquiry.
Your comment helped me crystallize something: the price divergence I’m seeing reflects the tension between two speeds. The derivatives market moves on financial narratives versus physical scarcity moving on industrial physics. The paper layer can ignore physical reality for a while, but eventually the gap forces repricing.
And now I truly understand inelasticity, not just the definition, but why it matters. When demand is structural (solar must have silver), price suppression through paper contracts only works until it doesn’t.
Appreciate you taking the time to validate what I was sensing but couldn’t yet articulate clearly.