Bitcoin Broke Its Cloud Confirmation Pending.
Technical Analysis Report: October 18-24, 2025
Condensed Summary of the Week
I monitored Bitcoin from Saturday, October 18 through Friday, October 24.
Price rebounded from 105.7 k to 110 k, breaking above the daily cloud for the first time since mid-October.
Volume stayed weak — around 80 % compared to 250 % during the capitulation — and the Chikou Span (the memory of the market, plotted 26 periods behind) still hasn’t confirmed.
The system is in a transitional phase: price turned constructive, but conviction has not arrived.
The breakout completed the setup I had been tracking since the 17th: the 108 k–110 k cloud test and the daily twist scheduled for October 28.
Price delivered what was expected technically, but without the volume needed for full confirmation.
Next week is decisive: October 27–28 is when the Chikou must clear the cloud and the breakout must prove sustainable.
Reading the System
For context:
Tenkan-sen is the short pulse, a 9-period signal line.
Kijun-sen is the gravity line, the average of 52 periods that defines equilibrium.
Chikou Span is the memory of the market, plotted 26 periods behind current price.
Kumo (Cloud) projects 26 periods ahead, showing probable support and resistance zones.
Structure Snapshot
Weekly: 107.2 k below cloud; Tenkan 114.9 k; Kijun 113 k; thick cloud still below price.
Daily: Three consecutive green candles into Kijun resistance; Chikou rising toward price near 112 k; twist due Oct 28.
4 H: Price broke above cloud at 110 k on low volume; Chikou above Kijun but still below cloud.
Volume declined through the week: 120 % → 99 % → 80 %. Continuation needs at least 150 % to confirm conviction.
Where We Could Be Heading
Bullish case (65–70 % probability):
– Hold above 110 k through weekend.
– Chikou clears cloud by Oct 27.
– Volume expands beyond 150 % MA.
→ Targets 113 k → 116 k (aligns with Gann Venus cycle).
Bearish case (30–35 % probability):
– Rejection at 110 k on daily close.
– Volume drops below 50 %.
– Chikou rejected by cloud bottom.
→ Retest 105.7 k; extension to 95.6 k only if support fails.
Critical levels:
Support 110 k, 109.5 k, 107 k, 105.7 k.
Resistance 111–113 k, 113.4 k (Kijun + 0.75 retracement), 114.9 k, 116 k.
🎓 AI Tutor Assessment
My Ichimoku AI tutor (Claude-based) graded this analysis A-, recognizing accurate multi-timeframe mapping and clear signal hierarchy.
I correctly identified that while price broke above the cloud and Chikou moved above Kijun (momentum confirmed), full trend confirmation awaits Chikou’s cloud clearance with volume expansion.
The note for improvement: compare current volume behavior with prior capitulations to quantify conviction strength.
📖 Teaching Capsule — What I’m Learning
Ichimoku confirmation unfolds in layers:
Price > Cloud → potential trend shift.
Chikou > Kijun → momentum validated.
Chikou > Cloud + volume expansion → trend confirmed.
This week stopped at Layer 2.
My discipline I’m learning to recognize incomplete confirmation and wait for all layers to align.
Next week will show whether the system’s memory (Chikou) finally agrees with the present.
keep stacking sats!
